Here’s Bitcoin’s Next Move According to Master Traders!
The five-point test of a key psychological level of $ 10,000 can be analyzed in two ways: the $ 10,000 resistance level is weakened in each test, or the resistance is so strong that buyers cannot get rid of it.
Many top crypto traders believe that the $ 9,000 area is a starting point for a new rally on the road to the $ 14,000 to $ 15,000 resistance range and $ 20,000 as a medium-term target. Others are expecting a major setback of $ 7,000 to $ 8,000 first, before Bitcoin’s price targets $ 14,000 and then tries to break the record.
Short-term, bullish scenario for Bitcoin
Expecting the bitcoin price to recover the $ 10,000 resistance level as a support and see an increase to key levels above it, investors estimate that the resistance area has weakened by numerous increases, ranging from $ 9,800 to $ 9,900.
Investors continue to discuss whether the uptrend began after Bitcoin’s current price trend halved the highly anticipated block reward on May 11. When the amount of Bitcoin mined is halved, the production rate of the new BTC and how much it is sold in the market then decreases.
Historically, the halving activity of 2012 and 2016 has resulted in a price increase of at least 2,500%. Therefore, BTC’s bullish orbit is that the halfway will move the Bitcoin price forward both in the short term and the long term.
According to cryptocurrency researcher Philip Swift, an indicator called the 2-Year Moving Average Multiplier shows that BTC fell to $ 3,600 and a multi-year trend rose to $ 5,800. In a macro-level and longer-term scenario, Swift stresses that the indicator suggests that the next reasonable target for BTC is $ 20,000, the all-time high.
Similarly, Bitcoin trader Nunya Bizniz said that Bitcoin showed a “golden cross” over a high time period and that it only took place seven times in the history of Bitcoin. The last golden cross triggered when BTC dropped above $ 5,000 in early 2019, and the price dropped to $ 3,150.
Golden Cross typically shows that an expanded bullish trend has begun. The risk, however, is that the price of BTC could potentially fall below this cross point when it occurs, making it a death cross cross with its bearish structure.
In order for most of Bitcoin’s macro bullish trends to remain intact, BTC needs to stay above $ 9,000 next week and retest the $ 10,000 resistance level. The positive sentiment between professional traders also coincides with the moving average convergence divergence indicator or MACD, indicating an additional upward move on the weekly Bitcoin price chart.
When Bitcoin stays above $ 9,000, the crypto investor known as “Light” says that the opinion among the best traders about Bitcoin is generally positive, saying:
“I have not yet come across a single competent trader / investor who is currently based on Bitcoin. And those in the long position think that there will be a bull run with great faith. Looking back, it turns out that it will either look incredibly open, or that we are all running forward from ourselves. “
However, when the majority of the market is bullish, it leaves BTC vulnerable to a correction before another bullish trend. This marks the risk of a deep recession that other reputable investors are seeing in the near term.
Fall scenario for Bitcoin over the next few weeks
If optimistic forecasts about Bitcoin revolve around the positive effect of halfway on a BTC price, negative projections also first turn towards halfway. In the previous two halves, the price of Bitcoin fell and the real uptrend did not start until 8-12 weeks after the split.
After five unsuccessful attempts, Bitcoin’s downward trend after falling in half and the $ 10,000 resistance level triggered most downward predictions for BTC. The Bitcoin trader, known as TraderXO, said in a tweet that the price of BTC would drop to $ 9,000 in the near term, and the $ 8,000 region would be a lower level support area.
Based on market data, about 72% of the Bitcoin futures market takes a long-focused position. This means that the overwhelming majority of traders are waiting for Bitcoin’s price to rise. While this is usually a positive piece of data, it also increases the likelihood of long squeeze.
BitMEX, Bitfinex and Binance Futures have an active long position of approximately $ 716 million. In contrast, only the short position of $ 273 million was recorded. The large discrepancy between long and short reduces the likelihood of short squeeze and increases the likelihood of a deep retreat.
Variables other than price action
Bitcoin’s fundamentals, such as activity, liquidity, and sensitivity in the blockchain, declined slightly after splitting. Liesl Eichholz, the head of the growth strategy at Glassnode, states:
“Bitcoin chain basics dropped slightly in the 20th week. GNI dropped 1 point throughout the week and pushed its overall assessment of the Bitcoin ecosystem to 73 points. This decline was mainly driven by the Network Health subdirectory, which decreased by 8 points. “
The small drop in overall liquidity and sensitivity mainly resulted from the decrease in interest in Bitcoin before and after half-split. Before the event, the number of transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain network and activity on various platforms increased.
Given the hype in the halfway, Eichholz stressed that the slight drop in bases is not necessarily a negative indicator. A positive factor, however, corresponds to an increase in the number of addresses greater than 0.1 BTC or around $ 970.
Bitcoin has a common currency image that whales have. That is, individual investors who hold a large part of the asset’s supply. However, data show that the distribution of BTC supply has improved and more people have BTC.
External factors such as over-the-chain data and basics show that there are no significant events in the short term that could have a significant impact on the price of BTC. This leaves BTC’s current price movement and macro trend projections as two factors likely to lower the price of BTC in the coming weeks.
For bears or sellers, the price of Bitcoin fell below $ 9,000 to prevent goolden cross in mid-$ 9,000, and an optimistic drop in the weekly chart will indicate that the downward trend will continue. For bulls or buyers, Bitcoin’s price above $ 9,500 to $ 9,600 would indicate that despite strong general resistances, there is sufficient demand to maintain the rise of BTC in spot, futures, options and corporate markets.